When they began failing in a cluster, information-wise, that was highly redundant. That was inconceivable before because it would have been just so expensive to do that calculation. The tempting deals are the bad ideas that look like good ideas, yet they ultimately contain some hidden flaw that reveals their true badness. "Time is an illusion, timing is an art.". When interviewed many years later about why, despite being a lawyer by training, he was the natural founder for an airline business, Kelleher quipped: I knew nothing about airlines, which I think made me eminently qualified to start one, because what we tried to do at Southwest was get away from the traditional way that airlines had done business.. Future research on the equifinal configurations we proposebroad/nonselective for early movers and narrow/selective for late moverscould thus help resolve the debate about the link between timing and performance. Privately, given the skewed returns, diminishing utility, the oversized negative impacts (a bad startup can ruin ones life and drive one to suicide), the limited number of startups any individual can engage in (yielding gamblers ruin)26, and the fact that startups & VC will capture only a minute percentage of the total gains from any success (most of which will turn into consumer surplus/positive externalities), the only startups that make any rational sense, which you wouldnt have to be crazy to try, are the overdetermined ones which anyone can see are a great idea. : Theoretical Analysis of Pressure Phenomena Associated With the Wireline Formation Tester,. The study is a descriptive one based on qualitative research. but less Jorge Luis Borges, Kafka And His Precursors (1951). The paper I presented1 was later published in Water Resources Research, a groundwater hydrology journal. This presents a conflict between personal and social incentives. Much progress has come from groups like SSGAC or PGC, which are consortiums of groups of all sizes (with some highly conditional participation from 23andMe)., [Backlinks, similar links, and the link-bibliography require JS enabled to transclude. As you might imagine, the use of that term in our fund-raising deck for our first fund struck a chord with a number of our potential investors, who worried that we would back insufferable founders. A predictable waste of money, perhaps, but thats how the incentives work out. This bears a resemblance to startup rates over time: an initial burst of enthusiasm for a new option, when it still has high prior probability of being the most profitable option at the moment, triggers a bunch of startups selecting that option, but then when they fail, the posterior probability drops substantially; however, even if something now looks like a bad idea, there will still be people every once in a while who insist on trying again anyway, and, because the probability is not 0, once in a while they succeed wildly and everyone is astonished that so, X is a thing now!, In DARPAs research funding and VC, they often arent looking for a plan which looks good on average to everyone, or which no one can find any particular problem with, but something closer to a plan which at least one person thinks could be awesome for some reason. The most important development for well-test interpretation was still to come: the pressure derivative. It may be relevant to note that Musk did not found Tesla; the two co-founders ultimately quit the company., As late as 20072008, Blockbuster could have still beaten Netflix, as its Total Access program demonstrated, but CEO changes scuppered its last chance. But you know what? When a participant crosses the finish line, the RFID tag is read by an RFID reader which transmits the tag's ID to the timing software. Look after a pet. And the next Mark Zuckerberg wont create a social network. There is no right or wrong answer. Jr.: Drawdown Behavior of a Well With Storage and Skin Effect Communicating With Layers of Different Radii and Other Characteristics, paper SPE 7453 presented at the 1978 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, October 13, Houston. In this case, the flowmeter acquires data while the well is flowing, which is what it is intended to do. 2. have new ideas and skills to do a better job. If the software doesnt work out, I guess well do something else. I ended up doing more work in Japan than anything else because Japan in general is so tech-smitten and obsessed that they just love it [VR]. I think they were just early. Was Moores Law Inevitable?, Kevin Kelly again: Listen to the technology, Carver Mead says. Enough progress in one domain (particularly computing power), can sometimes make up for stasis in another domain. This did not deter Marconi from the attempt, even though he was as unaware of the existence of the Heaviside layer as everyone else. At one time I considered writing a study of Kafkas precursors. If Blockbusters CEO had paid a pittance ~2000 to acquihire Netflix & put Reed Hastings in charge, or if it had simply stuck with its CEO in 2007 to strangle Netflix with Total Access, its shareholders would be far better off now. We should not stand alone in our industry, as Economides reminds us, but learn equally from others. Translation, Katsuki Sekida, Two Zen Classics: The Gateless Gate and The Blue Cliff Records, 2005., Which as a side note is wrong; compiled predictions actually indicate that AI researcher forecasts, while varying anywhere from a decade to centuries, typically cluster around 20 years in the future regardless of researcher age. He is the reason I have had the courage and motivation to continue contributing to an industry that has never been all that eager to take women seriously, and I am the reason he became interested in petroleum engineering. And there were plenty of lucrative search engine founders (is Jerry Yang still a billionaire? Ehlig-Economides, C.A. A kind of definition of Value of Information: If you do not work on an important problem, its unlikely youll do important work. Yet the principle of unripe time, distilled by F. M. Cornford [15] more than half a century ago from the changeless stream of Cambridge academic life, has provided the epitaph of more than one premature technology. Machine learning, deep learning, is one of the hot topics of our time, but a lot of the math was worked out decades agobackpropagation, for example, in the 1980s and 1990s. The first Kafka of Betrachtung is less a precursor of the Kafka of the gloomy myths and terrifying institutions than is Browning or Lord Dunsany. I was actually reading some earlier papers. The next Bill Gates will not build an operating system. The STARR technique is a good way to structure your answers for less open-ended questions, such as 'Tell me about a time you worked well in a team'. List all technologies that you use every hour, and state your purpose of using this technology. Suppose the home robotic growth were concentrated in a single private company which exploded into the billions of annual revenue and took away the market share of all the others, forcing them to go bankrupt or merge or shrink. One guy will do most of the work. From Frock2006, Changing How the World Does Business: Fedexs Incredible Journey to Success, in 1973: On several occasions, we came within an inch of failure, because of dwindling financial resources, regulatory roadblocks, or unforeseen events like the Arab oil embargo. Smartphones are an even bigger example of this. In their book Edisons Electric Light: Biography of an Invention, Robert Friedel, Paul Israel, and Bernard Finn list 23 inventors of incandescent bulbs prior to Edison. You dont have to be bipolar to be an entrepreneur, but it might help. Ironically, I was still at the U. of AlaskaFairbanks when my graduate student, Barney Wagner,7 was working on type curves for fractured wells in elongated reservoir geometries. September 5, 2005 By Christine A. Ehlig-Economides The Way Ahead "All the problems of the world could be settled if people were only willing to think. This leaves good VCs to invest in good ideas that look like bad ideashidden gems that probably take a slightly delusional or unconventional founder to pursue. The UK Biobank has produced an amazing amount of research for a large group, but is the exception that proves the rule: their openness to researchers is (sadly) extraordinarily unusual. In essence, this means that usually the time isn't right for most innovations. Early PC history is rife with examples of the prescient failing. She has also worked in industry for Schlumberger. Absolutely, Amazon (which has rarely turned a profit and has sucked up far more investment than Pets.com ever did, a mere ~$484.8$300.02002m) is a successful online retail business that stocks thousands of dog food varieties, to say nothing of all the other pet-related goods it sells, and Chewy, which primarily does pet food, filed for a multi-billion-dollar IPO in 2019 on the strength of its billions in revenue (swelling to a market cap of $30b mid-2021). But what about after the fifteenth? Three-dimensional-seismic-data acquisition and interpretation and borehole images became widespread while I worked in integrated reservoir characterization. COWEN: Two last questions. Even the Mississippi Company worked out: The ships that went abroad on behalf of his great company began to turn a profit. Dj vu, because what was described in TML on every other page is recognizably ordinary life in the 1990s and 2000s, never mind the 2010s, from the spread of broadband to the eventual impact of smartphones. Bad ideas that look like bad ideas are also easily dismissed; as the description implies, they are simply bad and thus likely to be trapdoors through which your investment dollars will vanish. Progress can happen and can be foreseen long before, but the details and exact timing due to bottlenecks are too difficult to get right. There were huge initiatives while there was nothing happening in the US. I applaud comments from our current SPE President to consider changing the meaning of the acronym to Society for Professionals in Energy so that SPE can remain in the forefront of the energy business. After that, an explosion of new models presented on log-log coordinates appeared in the mushrooming well-test literature. Bourdet showed me the pressure and pressure-derivative type curves he had developed8 (Fig. Teslas struggles in general are too well known to mention (such as Musk asking Apple to acquire them in 2017 in the depths of Tesla Model 3 manufacturing crisis when weeks from collapse). My PhD adviser at Stanford was Professor Henry J. Ramey Jr., one of the all-time giants in reservoir engineering, and especially in well testing. The Wanderer And His Shadow, Human, All Too Human., Nathan Myhrvolds patent troll company Intellectual Ventures is also featured in Malcolm Gladwells essay on multiple invention, In the Air: Who says big ideas are rare?; IVs business model is to spew out patents for speculations that other people will then actually invent, who can then be extorted for license fees when they make the inventions work in the real world & produce value. All the problems of the world could be settled if people were only willing to think. I once was shown some data acquired in a water-injection well that was abruptly shut in from a flow rate of 30,000 BOPD. If you were sure of that back then, or even mostly persuaded, and if a lot of others were as well, what good fortune you could have harvested. Its Moores law. A typical reflection paper is between 300 and 700 words long. Building the habit of self reflection can help you build a fulfilling life. ISSN: 1944-978X (Online)ISSN: 0149-2136 (Print). Part of the explanation is survivorship bias causing hindsight bias. And then suddenly a catalyst took hold and the adoption skyrocketed. The possibility of broadcasting radio waves across the Atlantic was convincingly excluded by theoretical analysis. If you concentrate you might be able to identify where some of the late reflections come from. (You too can achieve overnight success in just a few decades of hard work) A 2013 interview with Eric Jackson looks back on smartphone adoption rates: Q: Whats your take on how theyre [Apple] handling their expansion into China, India, and other emerging markets?, A: Its depressing how slow things are moving on that front. The three outstanding problems in physics, in a certain sense, were never worked on while I was at Bell Labs. o Activity Report: A day without Technology. In the same vein, the founder has to be able to attract customers to buy the product, partners to help distribute the product, and, eventually, other VCs to fund the business beyond the initial round of financing. ], Investing in Good Ideas That Look Like Bad Ideas, Networks of Power: Electrification in Western. Below are some guiding questions . This sounds a good deal like individuals pursuing standard careers & occasionally exploring unusual strategies like a startup; they will occasionally explore strategies which have performed badly (ie. I told him he was right, but that pressure data were quite noisy, that the analytical solutions were differentiable, but surely not real, data. Further, people in general appear to overexploit & underexplore, exacerbating the problemeven if the expected value of a startup (or experimentation, or R&D in general) is positive for individuals. Self-reflection is the simple and altruistic art of looking inward into one's true persona. Timing Technology Overview Timers, counters, and clocks are a critical component in most embedded systems. This, arguably, was the case for Michies own research. 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